1、 MMA prices have risen significantly, leading to tight market supply

Since 2024, the price of MMA (methyl methacrylate) has shown a significant upward trend. Especially in the first quarter, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday and the decrease in downstream equipment production, the market price once dropped to 12200 yuan/ton. However, with the increase in export share in March, the situation of market supply shortage gradually emerged, and prices steadily rebounded. Some manufacturers even quoted prices exceeding 13000 yuan/ton.

2、 The market surged in the second quarter, with prices reaching a new high in nearly five years

Entering the second quarter, especially after the Qingming Festival, the MMA market experienced a significant increase. In less than a month, the price has increased by as much as 3000 yuan/ton. As of April 24th, some manufacturers have quoted 16500 yuan/ton, not only breaking the record of 2021, but also reaching the highest point in nearly five years.

3、 Insufficient production capacity on the supply side, with factories showing a clear willingness to raise prices

From the supply side perspective, the overall production capacity of MMA factory continues to remain low, currently less than 50%. Due to poor production profits, three C4 method production enterprises have been shut down since 2022 and have yet to resume production. In ACH production enterprises, some devices are still in a shutdown state. Although some devices have resumed operation, the increase in production is still lower than expected. Due to limited inventory pressure in the factory, there is a clear attitude of price appreciation, which further supports the high level operation of MMA prices.

4、 Downstream demand growth leads to a significant increase in PMMA prices

Driven by the continuous rise in MMA prices, downstream products such as PMMA (polymethyl methacrylate) and ACR have also shown a clear upward trend in prices. Especially PMMA, its upward trend is even stronger. The quotation for PMMA in East China has reached 18100 yuan/ton, an increase of 1850 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a growth rate of 11.38%. In the short term, with the continuous growth of downstream demand, there is still momentum for PMMA prices to continue rising.

5、 Enhanced cost support, acetone price reaches a new high

In terms of cost, as one of the important raw materials for MMA, the price of acetone has also risen to a new high in nearly a year. Affected by the maintenance and load reduction of related phenolic ketone devices, the industry’s production has significantly decreased, and the pressure on spot supply has been alleviated. Holders have a strong intention to raise prices, leading to a continuous increase in the acetone market price. Although there is currently a downward trend, overall, the high price of acetone still provides significant support for the cost of MMA.

6、 Future outlook: MMA prices still have room to rise

Taking into account factors such as upstream raw material costs, downstream demand growth, and insufficient supply side production capacity, it is expected that there is still room for MMA prices to rise. Especially considering the high operation of upstream acetone prices, the commissioning of downstream PMMA new units, and the successive restart of MMA early maintenance units, the current shortage of spot goods is difficult to alleviate in the short term. Therefore, it can be foreseen that MMA prices may further rise.